17 The word of the Lord came to me: 2 “Son of man, propound a riddle, and speak a parable to the house of Israel; 3 say, Thus says the Lord God: A great eagle with great wings and long pinions, rich in plumage of many colours, came to Lebanon and took the top of the cedar. 4 He broke off the topmost of its young twigs and carried it to a land of trade and set it in a city of merchants. 5 Then he took from the seed of the land and planted it in fertile soil. He placed it beside abundant waters. He set it like a willow twig,6 and it sprouted and became a low spreading vine, and its branches turned towards him, and its roots remained where it stood. So it became a vine and produced branches and put out boughs.
7 “And there was another great eagle with great wings and much plumage, and behold, this vine bent its roots towards him and shot forth its branches towards him from the bed where it was planted, that he might water it. 8 It had been planted on good soil by abundant waters, that it might produce branches and bear fruit and become a noble vine.
9 “Say, Thus says the Lord God: Will it thrive? Will he not pull up its roots and cut off its fruit, so that it withers, so that all its fresh sprouting leaves wither? It will not take a strong arm or many people to pull it from its roots.10 Behold, it is planted; will it thrive? Will it not utterly wither when the east wind strikes it—wither away on the bed where it sprouted?”
This chapter is a chapter of parable, 1-10 unfold the parable itself, and 11-21 give the interpretation of it, while 22-24 give another parabolic prophecy in which God promises better things in the future. The great eagle in 3 is, of course, Nebuchadnezzar, who comes to Judah, represented here in the parable as Lebanon, and snatches away the king and its nobility (the top of the cedar), and removes them to Babylon. This had happened a few years previously, in 597 BC. The seed of the land (5), which became a spreading vine (6) refers to Nebuchadnezzar's action in appointing Zedekiah as a puppet king in Judah. Jehoiachin had been taken captive to Babylon and was languishing in captivity when Ezekiel spoke these words, with Zedekiah appointed as vassal king in his place. Nebuchadnezzar had entered into a covenant with Zedekiah, saying, 'Obey the orders and all will be well with you'. Zedekiah's vassaldom is indicated by the image of the low-spreading vine. The second great eagle (7) is Egypt, and the vine, Zedekiah, gave its roots a twist towards Pharaoh. This also is a matter of history: a few years after Zedekiah's appointment, he and some of the other vassal kingdoms were tempted and incited to rebel, and he foolishly entered an alliance with Egypt against Nebuchadnezzar and attempted an uprising. This brought Nebuchadnezzar's armies again to Jerusalem, and the city was razed to the ground and Zedekiah taken into captivity. Ezekiel is prophesying in a period between the first and second parts of the captivity, i.e. before Zedekiah had rebelled against Babylon or, it may be, even when the revolt was in progress, and was interpreting from the divine standpoint the foolishness of Zedekiah's attitude. Hence the question in 9, 'Shall it prosper?'.